Bad weather forecast

[rudymantel]

Let me share with y’all a real downer- I was scheduled today to do an Angel Flight. I was to fly a lady with sarcoma cancer to a doctor’s appointment in Orlando, a trip of some 180 nm and back in the afternoon. Well, yesterday’s Fort Lauderdale newspaper front page predicted FLOOD WARNING ! . I checked my Trade-a-plane weather and they forecasted 90% chance of rain and thunderstorms in both south Florida and Orlando, SE winds at 15-20 kts with gusts to 35 kts

I decided this was not really what I wanted to fly in, and cancelled the flight so that alternative arrangements could be made by my pax.

Imagine my surprise when I went out this morning to see a clear sky. No wind and same in Orlando- nicest day in weeks ! It was a beautiful day, and I feel like a damn idiot for canceling that flight.

Moral: Don’t believe the weather forecasts ! Wait and see what it will be and make your decision at flight time. If necessary, go and see what the weather is like. You can always make a 360 (ha ha) and cone home.

I think that since hurricane Katrina, the wx forecasters are really spooked and will err WAY on the side of pessimistic forecasts.

There actually was a storm today, named Tilly ? that completely missed Florida. But I still feel bad.
Rudy

[CraigH]

I personally think you did the right thing. What if you hadn't cancelled but the forecast came true? Then your lady would have missed her appointment because she hadn't arranged for alternative transportation.

[rudymantel]

Thanks, Craig. I was hoping someone would say something like that-
Rudy

[Bruce Fenstermacher]

Rudy
I used to have to make the same decision when flying charter. Problem was if we cancelled to may flights we wouldn't have jobs. It's a tuff call.

Now I fly MedEvac. While we don't have to make the call 24 hours in advance when we decide we can fly in less than great weather we REALLY have to make it. About 70% of the flights I turn down I probably could have made. It's difficult when there is a patient who could really use the help you can get them to. As difficult as it is you have to remember you don't need to add to the patents problem by involving them in an aircraft accident not to mention me and my crew in my case.

You made the right decision. Don't second guess yourself.

[dacker]

Rudy, form seeing your posts the past couple of years I gather that you have quiet a lot of aviation experience. I am sure, like most of us, you have probably made the wrong decision and gone flying when you shouldn't have. I think you showed the proper judgement. Flying for Angel Flight you have that responsibility. Way to go!
David

[rudymantel]

Thanks, Bruce, David- makes me feel better-
Rudy