More Flying vs Driving (split topic from carb ice)

N1478D · Post by **N1478D** » Thu Jan 02, 2003 5:35 am

Wish it was true, about the most dangerous part of flying being the trip to the airport, but it is not. Some instructors, and others, have used that to calm fears, but statistics prove that flying is more deadly than driving. The fact that most accidents are pilot error related gives an opportunity to improve on that through better training, education, etc. It would be better to approach it realistically and say to the student that there is danger in this activity but it can be minimized by practicing proper techique and using good judgement.

mit · Post by **mit** » Thu Jan 02, 2003 5:56 am

David Laseter wrote:Hey mit,
So far this winter in Arkansas my plane is performing great ( when running ) just like a nice summer day in Alaska.
Sure get's a lot of attention down there!
They think the 8.50's are huge!

Hi Dave

You probably saw that they were water skiing at Harding Lake at Thanksgiving. It may have been cold up on the slope but it just hit here in the interior -36 here at the house right now. We need more snow not really enough to go snowmachineing yet.

N1478D · Post by **N1478D** » Thu Jan 02, 2003 7:30 pm

gahorn wrote:
N1478D wrote:Wish it was true, about the most dangerous part of flying being the trip to the airport, but it is not. Some instructors, and others, have used that to calm fears, but statistics prove that flying is more deadly than driving. The fact that most accidents are pilot error related gives an opportunity to improve on that through better training, education, etc. It would be better to approach it realistically and say to the student that there is danger in this activity but it can be minimized by practicing proper techique and using good judgement.
Joe, I'm going to have to confront you on this issue. Every study ever done on travel safety disagrees with your statement. The NTSB (which is responsible for accident data and investigation for all modes of travel-air, train, ship, automobile, bus, etc.) disagrees with you.
The safest form of public travel is by scheduled-airline, followed closely by non-sched's, private aircraft (operated by professional flight crews), and then by charter and private aircraft. You are way out there on a limb with that incorrect statement. In fact, student pilot fatal accidents are less common than deaths by bathtub falls.
I also subscribe to the ALPA and AOPA theories that "pilot error" is an incorrect and misleading catch-all for unsolved accidents. It's similar to the "guns cause deaths" argument. No pilot without a mental health problem has ever deliberately gone out and caused an accident. There was some form of misleading/incorrectly perceived information or circumstance that led to the accident. The question that is not being asked in such cases is Why that pilot was mislead or confused. That is the root cause of the accident.

Well, confront seems kinda stronger than dissagree. But, we now have Bob Knight AND Bill Parcels in Texas.

Every study ever done does not state your opinion because the ones I recently read states what I stated. I will look up and send you info so you can read them. One was in Aviation Safety, AOPA, or one of the others that I subscribe to. The one about telling the student flying has the risk of being dangerous might have been in Flight Training. Think about the number of miles driven in autos vs the number of miles flown in our airplanes. The ratio of deaths per mile is much higher per air mile (according to the article, and common logic would come up with that number - everyone drives, very few fly). The other article that does not agree with your opinion states that instructors might not be doing students a favor by making a statement that flying is safer than driving. By telling a student up front that flying has the potential of being dangerous, the articles logic was that more serious thought might go in to the students thought processes on judgement, training, etc. Give me a couple of days to go thru the recent back issues. The article, and myself, was not talking about student pilot deaths, not sure how you got that. Student pilot safety has a great safety record. The article goes in to great detail about the NTSB statistical records. And, the theme was not that flying has to be unsafe, more that there is danger, but it can be managed. By being truthful about the potential danger, students can study more accurately.

N1478D · Post by **N1478D** » Thu Jan 02, 2003 8:02 pm

OH BOY!!!! I replied to being confronted by George BEFORE I read his response about how much air pressure goes in a tailwheel. So, after reading his response (2021 words I think) about tailwheel air pressure, going to get the guns out now to even have a slight chance.

George, think about every one you have ever known who drives a car. How many of those people have died from a car wreck. Not very many right? Now think about ANYBODY that you have ever heard about who has died from a car wreck. Not very many right? Ask your friends if they know of anybody who has ever died in a car wreck. Most of them have not.

Now, think about any body you have ever known who flies an airplane. Any of them not still alive . . . more than one, right?

Thousands and thousands of cars are out there driving mile after mile right now. Very few airplanes, lots of cars. Per mile, there are more deaths flying than there are driving.

n3833v · Post by **n3833v** » Thu Jan 02, 2003 9:15 pm

You guys must live in protected worlds or in the boonies. Back East here, it seems there are a lot more car deaths [that I know] than airplane deaths. The statistics many times can be twisted to show what the person doing the survey wants as a result by including some thing and not others. This happens many times.
John - n3833v

N1478D · Post by **N1478D** » Thu Jan 02, 2003 9:32 pm

n3833v wrote:You guys must live in protected worlds or in the boonies. Back East here, it seems there are a lot more car deaths [that I know] than airplane deaths. The statistics many times can be twisted to show what the person doing the survey wants as a result by including some thing and not others. This happens many times.
John - n3833v

John, I would guess that you are in a paradigm, which by nature makes it difficult for you to see outside of it. I believe there are more than 5 million people here in the DFW metroplex, hardley the boonies.

Ask yourself how many people that YOU know of who have been killed in a car. Not what it seems, but people you can name their first and last names. Then, ask everybody you know how many people they KNOW who have been killed in a car accident. You will be surprised at how low of a figure that is. Now divide the total number of miles driven by cars by the number of deaths.

OK, now how many people have you known who have died in an airplane crash. Probably more than you know who have died in automobiles. There have been many, many, many more miles driven than flown. Do the math.

Post by **GAHorn** » Thu Jan 02, 2003 10:12 pm

Ok, Joe. I don't have time to teach all the school subjects necessary to dispense with all the errors of your argument, but I'll address a few of them. Here goes.
Firstly, statistical studies are notorious for being inaccurate when conducted based on small numbers. If you are going to argue this subject based upon only the people you or I know then this is going to be one of, if not the most, inaccurate statistical study ever! Let me pose an equally inaccurate and improper statistic.... How many car wrecks have you personally witnessed? And, how many airplane wrecks have you personally witnessed?
The number of accidents of any type which either of us has witnessed or even heard of is such a small sampling of the available data that we could skew the results to say whatever you might wish. But the results would still be pure BS.
Not only is the total fatalities fantastically more numerous in autos than in airplanes..... That number is only exceeded statistically by the incorrectness of your other statement that "Per mile, there are more deaths flying than there are driving."
As an example, according to the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board, in the 11 years spanning 1984 to 1994, there were 49 fatal accidents involving U. S. operators of large capacity (over 30 passenger seats) air carrier aircraft. There was a minimum of one fatal accident in 1984 and 1993 and a maximum of 11 in 1989. The fewest people killed in one year was one in 1993 and the most was 526 in 1985. For smaller U.S. registered aircraft in scheduled service, there were 59 fatalities in 1985. There were more than 14,000 automobile deaths that year! The total mileage flown by major U.S. carriers (FAR 121) was 15.48 Trillion miles. There was less than a .003 chance that you'd die in an airplane that year, yet the death rate by all other causes (automobiles being the highest...even higher than cancer death rates and murder combined!) was 32.2 per 100K!
More importantly: According to the Bureau of Transportation website, the
Death rate per 100,000 population for the years
1970 1980 1990 1993 were
Motor vehicle accidents 26.9 23.5 18.8 16.3
Aerospace accidents 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.3
Death (numbers)
1970 1980 1990 1993
Motor vehicle accidents 54,633 53,172 46,814 41,893
Aerospace accidents 1,612 1,494 941 859

(http://robots.cnn.com/US/9705/valujet/d ... vs.flying/)

In other words, you are either 54.33 or 48.77 times more likely to die in an automobile than you are in an airplane based upon 1993 Bureau of Transportation statistics (depending on whether you wish to use the accident rate data or the actual numbers of deaths data.) Joe, Do the math and quit arguing based only upon your unsupported opinion. This is an easy research on the internet rather than simply throwing out opinionated personal beliefs. (Perhaps the death rate is a bit higher though in flat-winged airplanes?)

N1478D · Post by **N1478D** » Thu Jan 02, 2003 11:33 pm

Ha, George you are entertaining. You can pull more numbers together faster than a news reporter can become an expert on whatever he/she are reporting on, or a FAA person can write an article to score points.

Small numbers are not wrong, just by being small. The science of Industrial Engineering teaches how to do sampling of data. All kinds of errors are probable and likely depending on what the need was at the time of the studies you referenced. Do your own sudy - you know people both in the auto world and the airplane world. Admit it, personally you know more people who have died from airplane accidents than auto accidents don't you? The NTSB doesn't have a clue as to how many airplane miles are flown. Nor, does anyone know how many auto miles are driven. All of us that are non-commercial pilots drive many more miles than we fly. Don't get scared if you come to the conclusion that my argument is correct. Flying and driving are both dangerous. The next time you are flying over a crowded interstate, look down at the hundreds of cars you can count from your one airplane. The miles those folks are racking up 24 hours a day vs the miles you are racking up in your one airplane ( look around, no other airplanes ) are so far apart in numbers that your argument is falling apart. If an airliner with 200 people flies 1000 miles is that counted as 1000 miles or 200000? If a car with a family of 5 are on a 2000 mile cross country trip, is that counted as 2000 or 10000 miles? In other words, an accurate study has never been done. I witnessed a fatal accident, a tractor trailer rig didn't want to wait for the person in front of him to make a left hand turn so he pulled in to my lane and hit the car in front of me head on, each going 60 miles per hour. I didn't know the young bride who died other than I was the first one there and the only person to offer her comfort till the ambulance arrived. And, a distant relative was killed in a car accident when I was a child. Other than those two, that's it. It is a larger number than two pilots who are dead now due to aircraft accidents that I have known. When I add up all of the driving miles vs flying miles in peoples lives that I've known, there are lightyear more driving miles. So, in my personal study, driving is safer than flying, and I live in the DFW area, home of the worst drivers in the USA.

David Laseter · Post by **David Laseter** » Fri Jan 03, 2003 1:46 am

Automotive vs. Aviation Safety

........................................U.S. Automobiles......U.S. Commercial Aircraft
Deployed Units..................~100,000,000..........~10,000
Operating hours/year.........~30,000 Million........~55 Million
Cost per vehicle................~$20,000.................~$65 Million
Mortalities/year..................42,000.....................~350
Accidents/year...................21 Million.................170
Mortalities / Million Hours....0.71.........................6.4
Operator Training...............Low.........................High
Redundancy Levels.............Brakes only.............All flight-critical systems

Table 1. Summary of NTSB aviation accident statistics.
......................................airlines...air carriers...air taxis....gen aviation
% of total flight hours ........27.7 ....4.4...............5.6...........62.3
% of total fatalities.............13.4 ....2.6...............5.7...........78.3
fatalities per year..............140.3 ....26.8.............59.8..........820.0
fatalities / fatal accident ....34.60 ....6.10.............2.37..........1.85
accidents /mill flight hrs.....2.49.......9.29.............2.41..........87.22
fatal accidents/mill flt hrs...0.34.......2.35.............0.53..........16.57
fatalities /mill/ flight hrs... .11.82......14.31...........24.96........30.73
collateral fatalities /year....6.4.........1.8..............1.8............13.6
collat fatalities/mill flt hrs .0.54.......0.98....... .....0.740... ....51

David Laseter · Post by **David Laseter** » Fri Jan 03, 2003 2:16 am

Put me on the unpopular side I guess!

I've known a dozen pilot's personally that have died since 1994 when I started flying and hanging around airports.
I've only known 2 people personally in all my life that's died in automobiles.
NOTE: I lived in ALASKA 1987 - 2002, where 20-30 pilots die every year. I don't think there are as many auto fatalities per year, I'd have to look those stats up. In Alaska where 1 out of 4 people are pilots, reality hits home. And yet we still don't fly anywhere near as much as we drive. When my plane was down for 3 yrs, my wife and I had 6 close friends crash & die, in 6 diff crashes. It really started to put doubt in my and my wifes mind about flying.
You guys strayed from Joe's original statement a bit. PROPORTIONALLY is the key word.
Joe, you don't have to explain it again!

I REALLY don't won't to admit it cause I use the "planes are safer argument" all the time. But from my perspective Joe's got a good point.
I sure like ALL you guys and I really hope you will still be my friends at the 2003 170 Convention.

N1478D · Post by **N1478D** » Fri Jan 03, 2003 2:33 am

David, that took guts. Paradigms are really strange human things. I can easily talk myself into telling people that flying is safer than being on the freeways, especially after a commute to/from work.

zero.one.victor · Post by **zero.one.victor** » Fri Jan 03, 2003 2:50 am

Quit usin' them funny words! A guy I know here in Port Townsend had a bumper sticker that said "subvert the dominant paradigm". Even after he explained it to me,I didn't get it!
Beside,all these posts seem like they belong on the "is flying dangerous" thread,not the "carb ice" thread. Or am I in the wrong place--again?

Eric

N1478D · Post by **N1478D** » Fri Jan 03, 2003 4:05 am

zero.one.victor wrote:Quit usin' them funny words! A guy I know here in Port Townsend had a bumper sticker that said "subvert the dominant paradigm". Even after he explained it to me,I didn't get it!
Beside,all these posts seem like they belong on the "is flying dangerous" thread,not the "carb ice" thread. Or am I in the wrong place--again?

Eric

HI Eric, what in the world was that explanation?

This might very well be one that George splits, hopefully enough people will vote that flying is safer and he will be happy.

Care to share how you feel, do you feel flying is as safe as driving?

ak2711c · Post by **ak2711c** » Fri Jan 03, 2003 6:46 am

I read an article once that said there are more people killed each year by drunk drivers alone than all the airplane wrecks combined per year. Can't remember were I read it. Living here in Alaska though I could see were you might be right Joe. I've lost a lot of good friends. But I would rather believe George, that way I can keep telling my cool statistic to my passengers.

In George's defense I have never read anything that says automobiles are safer than planes. Everything I have read supports the opposite. I think I'll stick my head in the sand now in case the statistics change.

Shawn

zero.one.victor · Post by **zero.one.victor** » Fri Jan 03, 2003 7:17 am

The way I am at the controls,ain't neither one of 'em safe!
I'm gonna straddle the fence here and say that flying is generally less forgiving of mistakes--something simple that you screw up or neglect might only be an inconvenience in your car but can kill you in an airplane. Running out of gas or misjudging the weather come to mind.
There's an old saying that good judgement comes from experience but experience often comes from surviving bad judgement.
There may be way less aviation-related deaths but they usually get more than their share of news coverage.
Usually if you die in an airplane (that you're piloting!),it's your own fault,but often when you die in a car wreck it's someone else's.
I intend to die like my grand-dad did--quietly,in his sleep. Of course,the other three people in his car were screaming........

Eric